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  当前位置:网站首页 > 研究报告 >

宏观与大类资产配置系列评论:股权质押风险到底有多大?

时间:2018-07-08 11:27来源:网络整理 作者:东方台卫视 点击:

6月以来A股市场在多种因素影响之下,再度出现连续下跌。15年股灾时期杠杆资金导致螺旋式失速下跌,留下的深刻记忆使得在每次市场调整过程中,市场都担忧杠杆资金的爆仓风险,本次也不例外。近期频频爆出的股权质押风险事件,显示当前市场中风险最大的杠杆资金为股权质押。虽然股权质押具有局部风险,但全面分析会发现总体风险有限,不会带来系统性金融风险。

目前股权质押股票市值3.1万亿左右,对应融资在1.5万亿左右。其中在平仓线以下的股权质押股票市值约8000亿元,对应市值不到4000亿元。一方面,股权质押融资规模以及落在平仓线以下规模有限,特别是与股灾前杠杆资金规模相比。另一方面,由于股权质押操作相对灵活,因而具有较大的转圜余地,即使触及平仓线,大股东也可以以手持股票补充抵押物。当前触及平仓线的股权质押中只有2500亿元左右股票的质押比例高于50%。这部分可能面临较大的平仓压力,其余压力均较为有限。即使股市进一步下跌,新落到平仓线以下且股东补充抵押物能力不足的规模也较为有限,估计市场下跌10%,这部分新增也不会超过1000亿元。分行业来看,除计算机等少数行业之外,大部分行业股权质押平仓压力有限。因而,股权质押会带来局部风险,但不会导致系统性金融风险,也不会引发因资金平仓形成的螺旋式下跌。

风险提示:局部风险爆发超预期。

(责任编辑:东方台)
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